JAPAN ATOMIC INDUSTRIAL FORUM, INC.

for Japanese

ATOMS in JAPAN

2 August, 2019

IEEJ’s 2020 Economic and Energy Outlook Compares Effects of Completing and Not Completing Anti-Terrorism Facilities at Japan’s NPPs

At its regular meeting on July 23, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) released a report entitled “Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2020,” referring to the fiscal year that will begin in April 2020.

Using a reference scenario based on world economic trends in 2019-20, the report addresses three issues:

  • The completion of construction of facilities to respond to specific severe accidents (so-called “anti-terrorism facilities”) at the country’s nuclear power plants (NPPs) and the accompanying delays in restarting them.
  • Soaring crude oil prices due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
  • The effects of trade wars on global energy supply and demand.

Japan’s power companies have been given a five-year grace period to build anti-terrorism facilities, starting from the time their work plans for the plants themselves are approved. If they fail to complete the facilities by then, they will be ordered by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) of Japan to suspend operation of the NPPs in question.

The times required to complete the anti-terrorism facilities have grown longer. For example, Sendai-1 (PWR, 890MWe) of the Kyushu Electric Power will reach its deadline in March 2020.

In the reference scenario mentioned in the IEEJ report, nine NPPs are expected to have met the new regulatory standards and been restarted, with no additional reactors being restarted in the current fiscal year. One NPP is expected to be suspended due to a delay in completing its anti-terrorism facilities, bringing the nation’s total generated electricity to 59TWh—a year-on-year decrease of 4.9 percent—with an increase in energy-derived CO2 emissions.

Meanwhile, in FY20 (starting April 2020), the operation of four units are seen by the reference scenario to have stopped due to delayed construction of anti-terrorism facilities, even though five NPPs are expected to be restarted. Total generated electricity in the upcoming fiscal year is pegged at 62.4TWh, representing an increase of 5.7 percent from the year before.

Meanwhile, in the “high case,” in which anti-terrorism facilities are assumed to be completed by their deadlines, fossil fuel imports are expected to decrease by JPY100 billion (USD900 million at USD1=JPY110) in comparison with the aforementioned scenario, with the energy self‐sufficiency rate seen to improve by 1.2 percentage points, and CO2 emissions to be reduced by 8 million tons.

In that respect, the analysis shows that “examination standards will have to be made clear,” and that “it is important to focus on functional examinations by taking plant-specific circumstances into consideration.”

After talking about possible price increases for crude oil and LNG owing to the worsening geopolitical situation associated primarily with U.S.-Iran relations, and in light of Japan’s current dependency on fossil fuels, the outlook points out the importance of preparedness for risks. Those include lowering the cost of renewable energy, and enabling the smooth restart of the country’s NPPs, most of which are currently shut down.

Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

SNS facebooktwitter

NPPs Map

Video

Voices from Nuclear Industry – Contributing to a clean and resilient recovery

3 September, 2020
Voices from Nuclear Industry – Contributing to a clean and resilient recovery03:59

Recent News

24 February, 2021
FEPC Chairman Explains Response to Earthquake off Fukushima
17 February, 2021
Site for Spent Fuel Intermediate Storage Facility Outside Fukui Prefecture to Be Determined by End of 2023
5 January, 2021
New Year’s Greeting by JAIF Chairman Imai
10 December, 2020
Japan’s NRA Recognizes Compatibility of JNFL’s MOX Fuel Fabrication Plant with New Regulatory Standards, Approving Changes
3 December, 2020
MHI Launches New Strategy to Achieve Carbon Neutrality by 2050
26 November, 2020
JAIF Releases Results of Fact-finding Survey of Japanese Nuclear Industry for Fiscal 2019: Some Effects Seen of COVID-19
24 November, 2020
Japan’s Energy Supply and Demand in Fiscal 2019 Shows CO2 Emissions Down for Sixth Year in a Row
24 November, 2020
NUMO Accepts Applications from Two Municipalities to Conduct Literature Surveys, Moving Closer Toward Selecting HLW Final Disposal Site
16 November, 2020
Kyushu Electric Power Starts Operating Facilities at Sendai-1 NPP Designed for “Specific Severe Accident” Response—First Time in Japan
13 November, 2020
Japan’s NRA Approves Changes to Mutsu Recyclable-Fuel Storage Center after Confirming Regulatory Compliance
▲TOP