In the analysis, MRI used its MRI-TIMES energy-economic model to estimate Japan\u2019s power generation mix in 2050, assuming that the country achieves carbon neutrality by that year. Costs for nuclear, thermal and renewable power generation were based on model plant specifications used by the Japanese government\u2019s Working Group on Verification of Power Generation Costs in 2024. The analysis did not take into account the deployment of next-generation innovative reactors.<\/p>\n
The results showed that nuclear power would account for 34% of Japan\u2019s total electricity generation in 2050 in a case where no upper limit was placed on the construction of new nuclear capacity. Even when the pace of new construction was capped at Japan\u2019s historical rate of reactor construction, nuclear still accounted for 33% of total generation.<\/p>\n
According to MRI, the results suggest that, under certain assumptions and taking into account energy security, economic efficiency and environmental sustainability, nuclear power supplying around 30% of Japan\u2019s electricity in 2050 could be a rational option.<\/p>\n
Achieving that level, however, would require 58 GWe of nuclear generating capacity. Even assuming that existing reactors operate for 60 years, Japan would need to build additional capacity equivalent to approximately 28 large light-water reactors of 1,200 MWe each.<\/p>\n
MRI said that for nuclear power to continue playing a sustainable role in Japan\u2019s electricity mix, it will be necessary to maintain and improve its cost competitiveness, with safety remaining the fundamental prerequisite. The institute identified maintaining and strengthening Japan\u2019s domestic nuclear supply chain as a key factor.<\/p>\n
MRI stressed that a weakening supply chain could increase construction and operating costs through greater dependence on overseas suppliers and longer construction periods, undermining the economic rationale for nuclear power in Japan.<\/p>\n
To prevent such an erosion of domestic capabilities, MRI said Japan needs to establish a clear national vision while experienced engineers and skilled workers remain active in the industry, and set out policies for areas such as new nuclear construction and overseas exports so that nuclear technologies and skills can be passed on to the next generation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In the analysis, MRI used its MRI-TIMES energy-economic model to estimate Japan\u2019s power generation mix in 2050, assuming that the country achieves carbon neutrality by that year. Costs for nuclear, thermal and renewable power generation were based on model plant specifications used by the Japanese government\u2019s Working Group on Verification of Power Generation Costs in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,6],"tags":[691,730,1573,1042,690,1496,1572],"class_list":["post-7978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","category-npps","tag-691","tag-carbon-neutrality","tag-economically-feasible","tag-mri","tag-nuclear-power","tag-nuclear-supply-chain","tag-power-mix"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7978"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7978\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7979,"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7978\/revisions\/7979"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jaif.or.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}